DR-R3W asks:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 12 June 2023?
Closed Jun 12, 2023 07:01AM UTC
As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, NATO continues to support the country's defense without direct involvement (The Hill, Axios, Unian [in Ukrainian]). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 12 June 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.15% | |
| No | 97.85% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 147 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 215 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 484 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 605 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
