DR-R3W asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 12 June 2023?

Started Nov 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 12, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, NATO continues to support the country's defense without direct involvement (The Hill, Axios, Unian [in Ukrainian]). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 12 June 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.15%
No 97.85%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 147
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 484
Average for questions older than 6 months: 605
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

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Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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