Started Nov 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jun 12, 2023 07:01AM UTC

DR-R3W asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 12 June 2023?

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, NATO continues to support the country's defense without direct involvement (The Hill, Axios, Unian [in Ukrainian]). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 13.30% -0.06% +0.70% +1.58%
No 86.70% +0.06% -0.70% -1.58%

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