The Economist asks:

What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 30 September 2023, according to CoinMarketCap?

Started Nov 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 06:45AM UTC

Troubles at the crypto exchange FTX are the latest hit to the cryptocurrency ecosystem (Economist, CNBC, CoinDesk, Decrypt). The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 30 September 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under "Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap" (CoinMarketCap, set "Zoom" to "7d").

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The question closed "Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive" with a closing date of 30 September 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $200 billion 1%
Between $200 billion and $600 billion, inclusive 3%
More than $600 billion but less than $1.0 trillion 20%
Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive 67%
More than $1.4 trillion but less than $1.8 trillion 6%
Between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion, inclusive 2%
More than $2.2 trillion 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 243
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 1062
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.233669
2.
-0.232874
3.
-0.207388
4.
-0.2046
5.
-0.200007

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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