The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device in Ukrainian territory, territorial waters, or airspace?

Started Nov 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (Economist, BBC, Guardian). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count ( For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 1.91% -0.02% -2.17% -2.96%
No 98.09% +0.02% +2.17% +2.96%

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