The Economist asks:
Before 1 October 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device in Ukrainian territory, territorial waters, or airspace?
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (Economist, BBC, Guardian). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.22% | |
| No | 98.78% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 616 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1557 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
