The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device in Ukrainian territory, territorial waters, or airspace?

Started Nov 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (Economist, BBC, Guardian). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.22%
No 98.78%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 616
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 1557
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001973
2.
-0.001973
3.
-0.001973
5.
-0.001973

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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