Started Nov 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device in Ukrainian territory, territorial waters, or airspace?

Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (Economist, BBC, Guardian). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 5.12% +0.19% -2.18%
No 94.88% -0.19% +2.18%

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