The Economist asks:

Will the IMF raise its estimate of the world's real GDP percentage change in 2022 relative to 2021 in its first 2023 World Economic Outlook?

Started Nov 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Inflation, war, and other factors continue to be a drag on world economic growth (Economist, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2022). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using IMF world GDP percent change data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2023, which is expected in April 2023, and comparing it to the October 2022 World Economic Outlook world GDP percentage change. At the IMF website (IMF - World Economic Outlooks), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." World GDP percentage change in constant prices for 2022 was estimated to be 3.192% according to the October 2022 report (IMF - World Economic Outlook Database October 2022). The data may also be seen using the IMF's reporting tool here: (IMF).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 41.62%
No 58.38%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 163
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 243
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.198632
2.
-1.198632
3.
-1.169541
4.
-1.154655
5.
-1.14175

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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