Dubai Future Experts Candidates ask:

What will be the percentage change in Qatar's real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021?

Started Nov 25, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

As host of the World Cup in the fourth quarter of 2022, Qatar is expected to see a positive effect on its GDP (Zawya, Wilson Center). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using constant prices data as first reported by the Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA) of Qatar in its Quarterly National Accounts Bulletin for the fourth quarter of 2022 (Qatar Planning and Statistics Authority - National Accounts). In its Quarterly National Accounts Bulletin for the fourth quarter of 2021, the percentage change in Qatar's real GDP was 2.0% (Qatari National Accounts 4th Quarter 2021, see "Estimates of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Economic Activities at Constant Prices (2018=100), Q4, 2021" under "Y-o-Y" on page 10 in the file. Please note that there may be discrepancies between the title of a link to a report and the title in the report file itself. The report files themselves will be used.

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The question closed "Higher by between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Higher by less than 2.0% or lower 11%
Higher by between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive 6%
Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 6.0% 52%
Higher by between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive 18%
Higher by more than 8.0% 13%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 25
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.352436
2.
-0.265562
3.
-0.232428
4.
-0.220968
5.
-0.194211

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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