UBS asks:

When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

Started Dec 02, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 19, 2023 07:01AM UTC

While there have been talks between Ukraine and Russia since the latter's invasion of the country, the war continues (US News & World Report, Voice of America). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 19 August 2023" with a closing date of 19 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 26 February 2023 0%
Between 26 February 2023 and 23 May 2023 0%
Between 24 May 2023 and 18 August 2023 1%
Not before 19 August 2023 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 496
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 1396
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.029462
2.
-0.029462
3.
-0.029462
4.
-0.029462
5.
-0.029462

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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