Started Dec 02, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Aug 19, 2023 07:01AM UTC

UBS asks:

When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

While there have been talks between Ukraine and Russia since the latter's invasion of the country, the war continues (US News & World Report, Voice of America). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 26 February 2023 1.46% -0.12% -0.54% -1.77%
Between 26 February 2023 and 23 May 2023 6.72% -0.39% -0.28% -3.61%
Between 24 May 2023 and 18 August 2023 18.01% -0.50% -0.99% -0.41%
Not before 19 August 2023 73.81% +1.01% +1.81% +5.79%

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