Between 9 December 2022 and 9 June 2023, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?

Started Dec 09, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 10, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Amid an increase in ballistic missile tests in 2022, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (Vox, Voice of America). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 10 June 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.47%
No 99.53%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 84
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 432
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username