The Economist asks:

When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?

Started Dec 09, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 18, 2023 08:22AM UTC

North Korea has launched a flurry of missile tests in 2022 (Economist, NPR, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.

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The question closed "Before 1 March 2023" with a closing date of 18 February 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 March 2023 14%
Between 1 March 2023 and 31 May 2023 26%
Between 1 June 2023 and 31 August 2023 21%
Not before 1 September 2023 40%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 149
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 303
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 511
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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