Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the average price of a litre of gasoline in Vancouver, British Columbia, on 31 May 2023, according to the Canadian Automobile Association (CAA)?

Started Dec 09, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 31, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The price of gasoline in Vancouver, BC, is well off its highs for 2022, though various factors may push prices back up in 2023 (Daily Hive). The question will be suspended on 30 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CAA for 31 May 2023 (CAA, change "Ontario" to "British Columbia" and select "Vancouver" as the city). On 6 December 2022, the average price of a litre of gasoline in Vancouver, BC, was 157.8, or Can$1.578.

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The question closed "More than Can$1.75 but less than Can$2.00" with a closing date of 31 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than Can$1.50 0%
Between Can$1.50 and Can$1.75, inclusive 5%
More than Can$1.75 but less than Can$2.00 87%
Between Can$2.00 and Can$2.25, inclusive 8%
More than Can$2.25 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 133
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.154548
3.
-0.102505
4.
-0.090811
5.
-0.078894

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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