Will postponed local elections be held in North Kosovo before 1 May 2023?

Started Dec 16, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 23, 2023 04:00PM UTC

On 10 December 2022, Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani announced that local elections in northern Serb-majority areas would be postponed to 23 April 2023, due to violence and tensions in the area (Deutsche Welle, BBC [in Serbian]. Elections held in any of the following municipalities would count: Northern Mitrovica (Severna Mitrovica), Zubin Potok, Zvecan, and/or Leposavic. The local elections must be recognized by the government in Pristina to count. The question would close early upon the official announcement that the elections have been canceled or postponed to a date after 30 April 2023.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 23 April 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 87.21%
No 12.79%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 165
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

3.
-0.20507
4.
-0.202965
5.
-0.119424

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username