Will Finland and/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 July 2023?

Started Dec 30, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

On 18 May 2022, the countries of Finland and Sweden both submitted applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and approval from Hungary and Turkey were the final remaining obstacles to membership as of the end of 2022 (NATO, NPR, Euronews, NATO Parliamentary Assembly). The latest country to join NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020 (NATO).

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The question closed "Yes, Finland only" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, Finland only 97%
Yes, Sweden only 0%
Yes, both Finland and Sweden 2%
No 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 1149
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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