Will US real GDP contract in the first quarter (Q1) and/or second quarter (Q2) of 2023?

Started Dec 30, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Inflation, higher interest rates, and various geopolitical factors have raised concerns about economic growth in the US in 2023 (USA Today, Yahoo Finance, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data for Q1 and Q2 of 2023 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database upon the release of the BEA’s third estimate for Q2 2023 (FRED, BEA).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, in both Q1 and Q2 2023 1%
Yes, only in Q1 2023 0%
Yes, only in Q2 2023 3%
No 96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 73
Average for questions older than 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 395
Average for questions older than 6 months: 607
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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