Will US real GDP contract in the first quarter (Q1) and/or second quarter (Q2) of 2023?
Closing Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Inflation, higher interest rates, and various geopolitical factors have raised concerns about economic growth in the US in 2023 (USA Today, Yahoo Finance, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data for Q1 and Q2 of 2023 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database upon the release of the BEA’s third estimate for Q2 2023 (FRED, BEA).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, in both Q1 and Q2 2023 | 2.50% | +0.00% | -0.50% | -2.08% |
| Yes, only in Q1 2023 | 4.73% | +0.00% | -0.27% | -0.81% |
| Yes, only in Q2 2023 | 31.69% | -0.39% | -0.31% | +3.31% |
| No | 61.08% | +0.39% | +1.08% | -0.42% |