UBS asks:

Will the upper limit of the US federal funds target range reach or exceed 5.50% before 21 September 2023?

Started Jan 06, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 20, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates to combat inflation throughout 2022, which has raised fears of a potential recession in 2023 (USA Today, US News & World Report). The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which raised the upper range of the federal funds rate to 4.50% at its December 2022 meeting and released a new Summary of Economic Projections (Federal Reserve - FOMC Statement December 2022, Federal Reserve - Summary of Economic Projections December 2022). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 33.69% +0.14% -7.99% -24.34%
No 66.31% -0.14% +7.99% +24.34%

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