UBS asks:

Will the upper limit of the US federal funds target range reach or exceed 5.50% before 21 September 2023?

Started Jan 06, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 26, 2023 09:00PM UTC

The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates to combat inflation throughout 2022, which has raised fears of a potential recession in 2023 (USA Today, US News & World Report). The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which raised the upper range of the federal funds rate to 4.50% at its December 2022 meeting and released a new Summary of Economic Projections (Federal Reserve - FOMC Statement December 2022, Federal Reserve - Summary of Economic Projections December 2022). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 26 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 96.10%
No 3.90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 123
Average for questions older than 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 787
Average for questions older than 6 months: 607
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

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Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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