Before 1 January 2024, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?

Started Jan 06, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Island (News.com.au, Business Insider, Taipei Times, Yahoo).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.37%
No 99.63%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 67
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 230
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002717
3.
-0.002717
5.
-0.002703

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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