Fujitsu asks:

Between 18 January 2023 and 28 February 2023, will 60 or more countries in the UN General Assembly either vote against or abstain from voting on a resolution in any way condemning Russia by name?

Started Jan 18, 2023 10:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

For examples of previous resolutions in any way condemning Russia by name, please see https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3990673?ln=en and https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3965290?ln=en. Some variation of the verb "condemn" must be used in the resolution to count. In a related UN General Assembly resolution from October 2022, a total of 40 countries had either voted against the resolution (5 countries) or abstained (35 countries) (UN).

NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.14%
No 94.86%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 72
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 158
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003
3.
-0.003
5.
-0.003

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username