What will be the outcome of Hungary's referendum on the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation?
Started
Aug 31, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Challenges
This question was closed on option C ('Turnout will not reach 50%') with a closing date of 1 October 2016. Although over 98% of voters approved the referendum, fewer than 50% of eligible voters participated (The Guardian, NPR, CNN).
This is an updated version of previously voided question. For forecasts made on a the prior version see here.
A referendum scheduled for 2 October 2016 asks Hungarian voters: "Do you want to allow the European Union to mandate the resettlement of non-Hungarian citizens to Hungary without the approval of the National Assembly?" According to Hungarian law, 50% of the population must participate in the referendum for it to be valid (See Article 8, Paragraph 4 of the Hungarian Constitution). For more information on the upcoming referendum see: BBC, Reuters, Bloomberg.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Turnout will reach or exceed 50% and a majority will vote "Yes" | 0% | |
Turnout will reach or exceed 50% and a majority will vote "No" | 95% | |
Turnout will not reach 50% | 5% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 144 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191 | |
Number of Forecasts | 338 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 549 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |