What will be the outcome of Hungary's referendum on the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation?

Started Aug 31, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2016 05:00PM UTC

This question was closed on option C ('Turnout will not reach 50%') with a closing date of 1 October 2016. Although over 98% of voters approved the referendum, fewer than 50% of eligible voters participated (The Guardian, NPR, CNN). This is an updated version of previously voided question. For forecasts made on a the prior version see here. A referendum scheduled for 2 October 2016 asks Hungarian voters: "Do you want to allow the European Union to mandate the resettlement of non-Hungarian citizens to Hungary without the approval of the National Assembly?" According to Hungarian law, 50% of the population must participate in the referendum for it to be valid (See Article 8, Paragraph 4 of the Hungarian Constitution). For more information on the upcoming referendum see: BBC, Reuters, Bloomberg. Recommended Questions Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016? Before 2018, will it be officially announced that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement? Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before the end of 2016?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Turnout will reach or exceed 50% and a majority will vote "Yes" 0%
Turnout will reach or exceed 50% and a majority will vote "No" 95%
Turnout will not reach 50% 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 144
Average for questions older than 6 months: 235
Number of Forecasts 338
Average for questions older than 6 months: 651
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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