As of 30 June 2023, how many birds in commercial and backyard flocks will have been affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, or "bird flu") in 2023, according to the USDA?

Started Jan 27, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The HPAI outbreak across the US that started in 2022 continues, and has already led to the deaths of tens of millions of commercial and "backyard" birds (Wall Street Journal, Texas Farm Bureau, Tennessee Dept. of Agriculture). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). To download the data, first click "Birds Affected" in the table titled "List of Detections by Day." Then click the "Choose a format to download" to the left of "Share" and "Full Screen" in the ribbon below that table and select "Data." In the additional window that pops up, click "Download" in the upper right to download the data. Figures with "Confirmed" dates between and including 1 January 2023 and 30 June 2023 will count. Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 12 July 2023. As of 23 January 2023, the total number of birds affected since 2022 was 58,162,044.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Fewer than 2 million" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 2 million 86%
Between 2 million and 6 million, inclusive 4%
More than 6 million but fewer than 12 million 0%
Between 12 million and 20 million, inclusive 0%
More than 20 million but fewer than 30 million 0%
30 million or more 10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 134
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username