As of 30 June 2023, how many birds in commercial and backyard flocks will have been affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, or "bird flu") in 2023, according to the USDA?

Started Jan 27, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The HPAI outbreak across the US that started in 2022 continues, and has already led to the deaths of tens of millions of commercial and "backyard" birds (Wall Street Journal, Texas Farm Bureau, Tennessee Dept. of Agriculture). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). To download the data, first click "Birds Affected" in the table titled "List of Detections by Day." Then click the "Choose a format to download" to the left of "Share" and "Full Screen" in the ribbon below that table and select "Data." In the additional window that pops up, click "Download" in the upper right to download the data. Figures with "Confirmed" dates between and including 1 January 2023 and 30 June 2023 will count. Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 12 July 2023. As of 23 January 2023, the total number of birds affected since 2022 was 58,162,044.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 2 million 9.10% +0.00% +4.20% +6.80%
Between 2 million and 6 million, inclusive 11.90% -0.20% +2.80% -1.60%
More than 6 million but fewer than 12 million 26.90% -3.80% -0.30% -1.10%
Between 12 million and 20 million, inclusive 20.30% +2.70% +5.60% +7.00%
More than 20 million but fewer than 30 million 22.40% +1.30% -10.80% -10.30%
30 million or more 9.40% +0.00% -1.50% -0.80%

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