The Economist asks:

What will be the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for June 2023?

Started Jan 27, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Used car prices soared as inflation his across the US economy, though they are off their historic highs in late 2022 (Economist, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (Manheim). As of 27 January 2023, the value for June 2022 was 239.9.

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NOTE 28 January 2023: The typo in the highest bin has been fixed.


The question closed "More than 210.0 but less than 225.0" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 165.0 0%
Between 165.0 and 180.0, inclusive 0%
More than 180.0 but less than 195.0 0%
Between 195.0 and 210.0, inclusive 5%
More than 210.0 but less than 225.0 88%
More than 225.0 7%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 67
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 321
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.086579
2.
-0.065963
3.
-0.063182
4.
-0.052961
5.
-0.043349

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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