Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will a new parliamentary election be called in Canada?

Started Feb 01, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

There is speculation that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau may call for early parliamentary elections in 2023 (Politico, CBC). For early elections to be called, the Governor General, usually at the request of the prime minister, must dissolve parliament and issue election writs (Elections Canada, Twitter - Governor General of Canada, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Dissolving Parliament, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Issuing Election Writs). A by-election would not count (Elections Canada).

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The question closed "Not before 1 January 2024" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 July 2023 0%
Between 1 July 2023 and 31 December 2023 3%
Not before 1 January 2024 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 113
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.031318
3.
-0.031132
4.
-0.028742
5.
-0.027305

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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