Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will a new parliamentary election be called in Canada?
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
There is speculation that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau may call for early parliamentary elections in 2023 (Politico, CBC). For early elections to be called, the Governor General, usually at the request of the prime minister, must dissolve parliament and issue election writs (Elections Canada, Twitter - Governor General of Canada, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Dissolving Parliament, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Issuing Election Writs). A by-election would not count (Elections Canada).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
|Possible Answer||Crowd Forecast||Change in last 24 hours||Change in last week||Change in last month|
|Before 1 July 2023||2.00%||-1.00%||+0.00%||-0.70%|
|Between 1 July 2023 and 31 December 2023||13.00%||+1.00%||+2.00%||+5.00%|
|Not before 1 January 2024||85.00%||+0.00%||-2.00%||-4.30%|