Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will a new parliamentary election be called in Canada?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
There is speculation that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau may call for early parliamentary elections in 2023 (Politico, CBC). For early elections to be called, the Governor General, usually at the request of the prime minister, must dissolve parliament and issue election writs (Elections Canada, Twitter - Governor General of Canada, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Dissolving Parliament, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Issuing Election Writs). A by-election would not count (Elections Canada).
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The question closed "Not before 1 January 2024" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 July 2023 | 0% | |
| Between 1 July 2023 and 31 December 2023 | 3% | |
| Not before 1 January 2024 | 97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 33 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 113 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
