Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will President Joe Biden register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024 before 1 May 2023?

Started Feb 01, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 25, 2023 09:21PM UTC

Biden is expected to formally announce in early 2023 that he will run for reelection in 2024, though voter enthusiasm was low in January 2023 and his approval rating has been under 50% for much of his first term (The Hill, US News & World Report, NBC News, FiveThirtyEight). President Biden filed his original Statement of Candidacy for the 2020 presidential election on 25 April 2019 (FEC - Biden Filings, Politico).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 88.12%
No 11.88%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 380
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.304
3.
-0.268
5.
-0.225

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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