Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will President Joe Biden register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024 before 1 May 2023?
Closed Apr 25, 2023 09:21PM UTC
Biden is expected to formally announce in early 2023 that he will run for reelection in 2024, though voter enthusiasm was low in January 2023 and his approval rating has been under 50% for much of his first term (The Hill, US News & World Report, NBC News, FiveThirtyEight). President Biden filed his original Statement of Candidacy for the 2020 presidential election on 25 April 2019 (FEC - Biden Filings, Politico).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 April 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 88.12% | |
| No | 11.88% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 82 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 197 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 380 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 500 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
