UBS asks:

How many nonfarm job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for March 2023?

Started Feb 03, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Despite rising interest rates and recession fears, US job openings in December 2022 rose to over 11 million (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using March 2023 BLS data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in May 2023 (FRED). As of 1 February 2023, the number of nonfarm job openings reported for March 2022 was 11,855 thousand, or 11.855 million.

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The question closed "Between 9.0 million and 9.6 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 9.0 million 1%
Between 9.0 million and 9.6 million, inclusive 2%
More than 9.6 million but fewer than 10.2 million 8%
Between 10.2 million and 10.8 million, inclusive 37%
More than 10.8 million but fewer than 11.4 million 38%
Between 11.4 million and 12.0 million, inclusive 11%
More than 12.0 million 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 78
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.541
2.
-0.518
3.
-0.361
4.
-0.338
5.
-0.293

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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