The Economist asks:
When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?
Closed Mar 16, 2023 02:33PM UTC
North Korea has launched a flurry of missile tests in 2022 (Economist, NPR, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, ambiguous reporting regarding the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.
The question closed "Before 24 May 2023" with a closing date of 15 March 2023.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Before 24 May 2023||65%|
|Between 24 May 2023 and 23 August 2023||20%|
|Not before 24 August 2023||15%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||64|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 215|
|Number of Forecasts||128|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 606|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|