The Economist asks:

When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?

Started Feb 24, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 16, 2023 02:33PM UTC

North Korea has launched a flurry of missile tests in 2022 (Economist, NPR, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, ambiguous reporting regarding the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.

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The question closed "Before 24 May 2023" with a closing date of 15 March 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 24 May 2023 65%
Between 24 May 2023 and 23 August 2023 20%
Not before 24 August 2023 15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 128
Average for questions older than 6 months: 606
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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