Polymorpheus asks:

Will Paul Vallas win Chicago's 2023 mayoral election runoff?

Started Mar 03, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 04, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Mayor Lori Lightfoot failed to reach the top two in Chicago's general election on 28 February 2023, leaving Chicago voters with the choice between Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson for the office (NBC Chicago, NBC News). The runoff election is scheduled for 4 April 2023 (Ballotpedia).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 4 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 65.63%
No 34.37%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 96
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.777997
2.
-0.66845
3.
-0.575575
4.
-0.391281
5.
-0.34175

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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