What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?

Started Mar 08, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 26, 2023 11:59PM UTC

Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (Fannie Mae, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 26 April 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in April 2023 (FRED).

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The question closed "Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%" with a closing date of 27 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower by more than 1.5% 0%
Lower by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive 3%
Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5% 30%
Higher by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive 62%
Higher by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5% 5%
Higher by 4.5% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 163
Average for questions older than 6 months: 605
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.115
2.
-0.113
3.
-0.111
4.
-0.091
5.
-0.087

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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