What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?
Closed Apr 26, 2023 11:59PM UTC
Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (Fannie Mae, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 26 April 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in April 2023 (FRED).
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The question closed "Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%" with a closing date of 27 April 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower by more than 1.5% | 0% | |
| Lower by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive | 3% | |
| Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5% | 30% | |
| Higher by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive | 62% | |
| Higher by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5% | 5% | |
| Higher by 4.5% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 75 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 197 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 163 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 500 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
