Before 1 January 2024, will an OPEC member country announce that it will leave the organization?

Started Mar 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 21, 2023 02:00PM UTC

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has refuted reports that it plans to leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) amid policy differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia (CNBC, Middle East Eye). Qatar and other member countries have left the organization before (Twitter, CNBC, CSIS). As of the launch of this question, there were 13 OPEC member countries (OPEC). The date the country would cease to be a member of OPEC is immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 21 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.21%
No 99.79%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 59
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 227
Average for questions older than 6 months: 595
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.898
2.
-1.019
3.
-0.488
4.
-0.479
5.
-0.442

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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