When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?
Closed Jun 12, 2023 07:58PM UTC
North Korea has launched two ICBMs thus far in 2023, one of which came as the leaders of South Korea and Japan held their first bilateral meeting in over a decade (BBC, NPR, AP). For the purposes of this question, ambiguous reporting regarding the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.
NOTE 17 April 2023: We are aware of North Korea's launch of an apparent solid-fueled missile on 13 April 2023. We have yet to firm credible, open-source range estimates that would allow us to close the question but are continuing to monitor developments.
The question closed "Before 16 June 2023" with a closing date of 30 May 2023.
While we were not able to find sufficient credible open-source reporting as to the range of the solid-fueled rocket launched in mid-April 2023, we have found sufficient evidence to conclude that the "Chollima-1" missile launched on 30 May 2023 (PT) has an estimated range of at least 10,000 km. Therefore, the question will be closed as of that date.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Before 16 June 2023||33%|
|Between 16 June 2023 and 15 September 2023||43%|
|Not before 16 September 2023||24%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||44|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 216|
|Number of Forecasts||148|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 607|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|