When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?

Started Mar 17, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 16, 2023 07:00AM UTC

North Korea has launched two ICBMs thus far in 2023, one of which came as the leaders of South Korea and Japan held their first bilateral meeting in over a decade (BBC, NPR, AP). For the purposes of this question, ambiguous reporting regarding the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Before 16 June 2023 42.33% -4.10% -9.67%
Between 16 June 2023 and 15 September 2023 18.87% -0.42% -3.75%
Not before 16 September 2023 38.80% +4.51% +13.42%

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