When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?

Started Mar 17, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 12, 2023 07:58PM UTC

North Korea has launched two ICBMs thus far in 2023, one of which came as the leaders of South Korea and Japan held their first bilateral meeting in over a decade (BBC, NPR, AP). For the purposes of this question, ambiguous reporting regarding the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 17 April 2023: We are aware of North Korea's launch of an apparent solid-fueled missile on 13 April 2023. We have yet to firm credible, open-source range estimates that would allow us to close the question but are continuing to monitor developments.


The question closed "Before 16 June 2023" with a closing date of 30 May 2023.

While we were not able to find sufficient credible open-source reporting as to the range of the solid-fueled rocket launched in mid-April 2023, we have found sufficient evidence to conclude that the "Chollima-1" missile launched on 30 May 2023 (PT) has an estimated range of at least 10,000 km. Therefore, the question will be closed as of that date.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 16 June 2023 33%
Between 16 June 2023 and 15 September 2023 43%
Not before 16 September 2023 24%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 148
Average for questions older than 6 months: 607
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.453
2.
-0.453

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username