What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for April 2023?

Started Mar 22, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 04, 2023 11:59PM UTC

With higher interest rates and troubles in the banking industry, there are concerns that the US labor market will suffer (CNBC, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 4 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected on 5 May 2023 (BLS).

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The question closed "Less than 3.5%" with a closing date of 5 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3.5% 11%
Between 3.5% and 3.7%, inclusive 61%
More than 3.7% but less than 4.1% 22%
Between 4.1% and 4.3%, inclusive 6%
More than 4.3% 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 61
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 163
Number of Forecasts 130
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 361
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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