What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?
Closed May 18, 2023 11:59PM UTC
When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 18 May 2023 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). For 24 March 2023, the spread was -0.38%.
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The question closed "Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50%" with a closing date of 19 May 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| -1.00% or lower | 0% | |
| Between -1.00% and -0.75%, inclusive | 0% | |
| Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50% | 73% | |
| Between -0.50% and -0.25%, inclusive | 27% | |
| Higher than -0.25% but lower than 0.00% | 0% | |
| Between 0.00% and 0.25%, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 0.25% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 60 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 162 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 187 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 361 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
