What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?

Started Mar 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 18, 2023 11:59PM UTC

When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 18 May 2023 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). For 24 March 2023, the spread was -0.38%.

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The question closed "Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50%" with a closing date of 19 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
-1.00% or lower 0%
Between -1.00% and -0.75%, inclusive 0%
Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50% 73%
Between -0.50% and -0.25%, inclusive 27%
Higher than -0.25% but lower than 0.00% 0%
Between 0.00% and 0.25%, inclusive 0%
More than 0.25% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 187
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.131903
2.
-0.073765
3.
-0.071958
5.
-0.055959

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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