How many new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in April 2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?

Started Mar 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 03, 2023 11:59PM UTC

Electric vehicles are penetrating the UK motor vehicle market, though gasoline (petrol) vehicle sales have jumped in 2023 (CleanTechnia). The question will be suspended on 3 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the "April" data table from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in May 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month (SMMT - Car Registrations, SMMT). In April 2022, 12,899 new BEVs were registered in the UK (SMMT - News 5 May 2022).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between 20,000 and 25,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 4 May 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 10,000 1%
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 10%
More than 15,000 but fewer than 20,000 37%
Between 20,000 and 25,000, inclusive 28%
More than 25,000 but fewer than 30,000 12%
30,000 or more 12%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 101
Average for questions older than 6 months: 605
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username