Man Group asks:

When will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P either announce that the US has defaulted on its debt and/or downgrade the long-term credit rating of the US?

Started Apr 12, 2023 09:40PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 09:13PM UTC

Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Ratings Scale). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics - US Credit Rating). A downgrade to the outlook or a negative watch alone would not count (Investopedia - Negative Watch).

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The question closed "Between 1 July 2023 and 15 August 2023" with a closing date of 1 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 30 June 2023 0%
Between 1 July 2023 and 15 August 2023 0%
Between 16 August 2023 and 30 September 2023 0%
Between 1 October 2023 and 15 November 2023 2%
Between 16 November 2023 and 31 December 2023 2%
Not before 1 January 2024 96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 146
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.339
2.
-1.062
3.
-0.945
4.
-0.909
5.
-0.856

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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