Man Group asks:
When will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P either announce that the US has defaulted on its debt and/or downgrade the long-term credit rating of the US?
Closed Aug 01, 2023 09:13PM UTC
Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Ratings Scale). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics - US Credit Rating). A downgrade to the outlook or a negative watch alone would not count (Investopedia - Negative Watch).
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The question closed "Between 1 July 2023 and 15 August 2023" with a closing date of 1 August 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 30 June 2023 | 0% | |
| Between 1 July 2023 and 15 August 2023 | 0% | |
| Between 16 August 2023 and 30 September 2023 | 0% | |
| Between 1 October 2023 and 15 November 2023 | 2% | |
| Between 16 November 2023 and 31 December 2023 | 2% | |
| Not before 1 January 2024 | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 70 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 146 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
