Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 1 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?

Started Apr 12, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine may seek to regain the territory as war continues in the country (NBC News, Politico, France 24). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW, labeled "The Autonomous Republic of Crimea").

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6.41%
No 93.59%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 115
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 376
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00149
2.
-0.00149
3.
-0.00149
5.
-0.001483

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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