lsgold7 asks:

Will the city council building in Melitopol, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 1 October 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Started Apr 12, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Russian forces are reportedly expecting a Ukrainian counterattack in the spring of 2023, with the key city of Melitopol a potential target (France 24, Telegraph, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol' (Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol', Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 72300), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.05%
No 96.95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 103
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 513
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.100245
3.
-0.100199
4.
-0.099869
5.
-0.098341

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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