Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the value of the "misery index" for the eurozone reach or exceed 17.5% for any month in 2023 or 2024?

Started Apr 13, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The "misery index," or the unemployment rate plus the rate of inflation, is a measure of economic hardship first used in the US in the 1970s (Investopedia - Misery Index). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using unemployment rate and inflation rate data for "Euro area – 20 countries (from 2023)" as reported by Eurostat (Eurostat - Unemployment, Eurostat - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)). The highest level reached since 2018 was 17.3% in October 2022 (unemployment rate at 6.7% + inflation at 10.6%). Revisions to data after they are published would be immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.44%
No 94.56%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 78
Average for questions older than 6 months: 183
Number of Forecasts 389
Average for questions older than 6 months: 533
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.028975
3.
-0.026192
4.
-0.026189
5.
-0.0225

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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