Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the value of the "misery index" for the eurozone reach or exceed 17.5% for any month in 2023 or 2024?

Started Apr 13, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The "misery index," or the unemployment rate plus the rate of inflation, is a measure of economic hardship first used in the US in the 1970s (Investopedia - Misery Index). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using unemployment rate and inflation rate data for "Euro area – 20 countries (from 2023)" as reported by Eurostat (Eurostat - Unemployment, Eurostat - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)). The highest level reached since 2018 was 17.3% in October 2022 (unemployment rate at 6.7% + inflation at 10.6%). Revisions to data after they are published would be immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 2.00% 0% -0.25% -0.29%
No 98.00% 0% +0.25% +0.29%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username