Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many employed persons in the US will be members of unions in 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?

Started Apr 21, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the BLS for 2023, expected in early 2024 (BLS). To access the data, select only the box under "Total" under "Members of unions(1)" for the row "Total, 16 years and over," then click the "Retrieve data" button under the table. In 2022, there were 14,285 thousand employed persons were members of unions, or 14.285 million.

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The question closed "More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 13.8 million 0%
Between 13.8 million and 14.0 million, inclusive 1%
More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.2 million 12%
Between 14.2 million and 14.4 million, inclusive 54%
More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million 32%
14.6 million or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 115
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.311
2.
-0.303
3.
-0.14
4.
-0.109
5.
-0.086

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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