Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many employed persons in the US will be members of unions in 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the BLS for 2023, expected in early 2024 (BLS). To access the data, select only the box under "Total" under "Members of unions(1)" for the row "Total, 16 years and over," then click the "Retrieve data" button under the table. In 2022, there were 14,285 thousand employed persons were members of unions, or 14.285 million.
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The question closed "More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 13.8 million | 0% | |
| Between 13.8 million and 14.0 million, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.2 million | 12% | |
| Between 14.2 million and 14.4 million, inclusive | 54% | |
| More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million | 32% | |
| 14.6 million or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 115 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
