Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen or a country in the Horn of Africa before 1 January 2024?

Started Apr 21, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Drought, conflict, and other factors have left millions in Yemen and the Horn of Africa facing potential famine (NPR, PBS, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the countries in the Horn of Africa are Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda (Britannica). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 11.22%
No 88.78%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 178
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.062421
2.
-0.062421
3.
-0.062325
4.
-0.062325
5.
-0.061977

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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