UBS asks:

Will Sweden become a member of NATO before 1 October 2023?

Started May 05, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

While Sweden submitted its application to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in May 2022, approval from Hungary and Turkey remain obstacles to membership (US News & World Report, Voice of America, NATO Parliamentary Assembly). The latest country to join NATO was Finland on 4 April 2023 (NATO).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.13%
No 95.87%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 160
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 754
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.507083
2.
-0.498658
3.
-0.491108
4.
-0.490911
5.
-0.471347

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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