UBS asks:

Will Sweden become a member of NATO before 1 October 2023?

Started May 05, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

While Sweden submitted its application to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in May 2022, approval from Hungary and Turkey remain obstacles to membership (US News & World Report, Voice of America, NATO Parliamentary Assembly). The latest country to join NATO was Finland on 4 April 2023 (NATO).

This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.13%
No 95.87%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 160
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 754
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.507083
2.
-0.498658
3.
-0.491108
4.
-0.490911
5.
-0.471347

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username