When will the Writers Guild of America (WGA) vote to end its strike?

Started May 05, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Challenges

The WGA's contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, a trade group that represents studios and streamers, expired on 1 May 2023 and triggered a strike by writers (WGA, ABC7, Deadline). The last WGA strike ended in 2008 after union members voted to return to work after striking for 100 days (NBC News). The question would close upon the vote to end the strike irrespective of when the strike would actually end.

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The question closed "Not before 15 August 2023" with a closing date of 15 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 15 May 2023 0%
Between 15 May 2023 and 31 May 2023 0%
Between 1 June 2023 and 30 June 2023 0%
Between 1 July 2023 and 14 August 2023 0%
Not before 15 August 2023 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 52
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 250
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.121139
2.
-0.11281
3.
-0.107892
4.
-0.090386
5.
-0.083075

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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