When will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sign or announce an agreement to end their current conflict in Sudan?

Started May 05, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Fighting began between the SAF and RSF on 15 April 2023 and has raised fears of both a civil war and humanitarian catastrophes (CNN, Politico, Al Jazeera). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both the SAF and RSF to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Sudan. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 15 August 2023" with a closing date of 15 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 15 May 2023 0%
Between 15 May 2023 and 31 May 2023 0%
Between 1 June 2023 and 30 June 2023 0%
Between 1 July 2023 and 14 August 2023 0%
Not before 15 August 2023 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 198
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.029823
2.
-0.028036
3.
-0.023875
4.
-0.022846
5.
-0.020953

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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