When will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sign or announce an agreement to end their current conflict in Sudan?
Closed Aug 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Fighting began between the SAF and RSF on 15 April 2023 and has raised fears of both a civil war and humanitarian catastrophes (CNN, Politico, Al Jazeera). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both the SAF and RSF to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Sudan. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.
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The question closed "Not before 15 August 2023" with a closing date of 15 August 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 15 May 2023 | 0% | |
Between 15 May 2023 and 31 May 2023 | 0% | |
Between 1 June 2023 and 30 June 2023 | 0% | |
Between 1 July 2023 and 14 August 2023 | 0% | |
Not before 15 August 2023 | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 40 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215 | |
Number of Forecasts | 198 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 605 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |