Nonrival asks:

What will be the change in total beverage volume sold by AB InBev, the owner of Budweiser products including Bud Light, in North America in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023 as compared to Q2 of 2022?

Started May 05, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Sales of Bud Light, the most popular beer in the US, have been hit by pushback in the wake of AB InBev's promotional relationship with social media personality Dylan Mulvaney (USA Today, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, AP). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data for Q2 2022 and Q2 2023 as reported by AB InBev in its Q2 2023 report, expected in late July or early August 2023 (AB InBev - Investors). In the second quarter of 2022, AB InBev sold 27,361 thousand hectoliters (AB InBev - Second Quarter 2022 Results, see "North America" in Annex 1, Cambridge Dictionary - Hectoliter).

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The question closed "Down by 6.0% or more" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Down by 6.0% or more 64%
Down by more than 3.0% but less than 6.0% 24%
Down by between 0.0% and 3.0%, inclusive 8%
Up by more than 0.0% but less than 3.0% 2%
Up by between 3.0% and 6.0%, inclusive 1%
Up by more than 6.0% 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 41
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 112
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.319627
2.
-0.270329
3.
-0.234254
4.
-0.189988
5.
-0.175001

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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