Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?
Started
May 11, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 12, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closed Feb 12, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Since President Saied consolidating power after dismissing parliament in 2021, Tunisia has faced a series of economic, political, and social problems (Al-Monitor, AP, The National). Whether or not Saied has fled Tunisia will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
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The question closed "Not before 12 February 2024" with a closing date of 12 February 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 12 August 2023 | 0% | |
| Between 12 August 2023 and 11 November 2023 | 0% | |
| Between 12 November 2023 and 11 February 2024 | 1% | |
| Not before 12 February 2024 | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 46 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 172 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
