Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?

Started May 11, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 12, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Since President Saied consolidating power after dismissing parliament in 2021, Tunisia has faced a series of economic, political, and social problems (Al-Monitor, AP, The National). Whether or not Saied has fled Tunisia will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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The question closed "Not before 12 February 2024" with a closing date of 12 February 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 12 August 2023 0%
Between 12 August 2023 and 11 November 2023 0%
Between 12 November 2023 and 11 February 2024 1%
Not before 12 February 2024 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 172
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.024553
2.
-0.022354
3.
-0.014419
4.
-0.01073

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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