Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?
Started
May 11, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 12, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closing Feb 12, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Since President Saied consolidating power after dismissing parliament in 2021, Tunisia has faced a series of economic, political, and social problems (Al-Monitor, AP, The National). Whether or not Saied has fled Tunisia will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 12 August 2023 | 2.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
| Between 12 August 2023 and 11 November 2023 | 7.00% | +0.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% |
| Between 12 November 2023 and 11 February 2024 | 8.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | -2.00% |
| Not before 12 February 2024 | 83.00% | +0.00% | +1.00% | +3.00% |