When will Italy give written notice to China that it will terminate its agreement for the Belt and Road Initiative?

Started May 12, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 03, 2023 11:00PM UTC

Italy signed a memorandum of understanding with China on 23 March 2019 to join the latter's Belt and Road Initiative, which would be automatically extended through at least 2029 unless Italy gives written notice to China that it is terminating the agreement (Al Jazeera, Italian Government, US News & World Report).

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The question closed "Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023" with a closing date of 3 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 July 2023 0%
Between 1 July 2023 and 30 September 2023 0%
Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023 47%
Not before 1 January 2024 53%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 51
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 332
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.16024
2.
-0.145875
3.
-0.121216
4.
-0.106906

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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