Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the New Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2023 Alberta Legislative Assembly elections?

Started May 12, 2023 10:55PM UTC
Closed May 30, 2023 02:00AM UTC

Alberta voters are scheduled to vote on 29 May 2023 in what polls show is a tight race for control of the legislature amid widespread wildfires in the Canadian province (388Canada, CBC, CBC). If the election date is postponed in a constituency or constituencies, the closing date will be extended to accommodate the delayed dates in case the outcome of the question is dependent on their results.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 29 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 27.10%
No 72.90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 191
Number of Forecasts 53
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 487
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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