SE_Meyer asks:

How many hectares (ha) will be consumed by wildfires in Canada in 2023?

Started May 26, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 26, 2023 06:00PM UTC

Canada has already seen a devastating start to the wildfire season in 2023 (NASDAQ, CTV, CBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) in its "Canada Report" for 2023, expected in early 2024 (CIFFC - Annual Reports). In 2022, wildland fires consumed 1,656,504 hectares in Canada (CIFFC - Canada Report 2022, see page 15). A "hectare" is a metric unit of measure for area equivalent to 2.471 acres (Britannica - Hectare). Additional periodic data are available from CIFFC (CIFFC National Fire Situation Report).

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The question closed "7.50 million or more" with a closing date of 26 June 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 3.00 million 1%
Between 3.00 million and 3.75 million, inclusive 1%
More than 3.75 million but fewer than 4.50 million 1%
Between 4.50 million and 5.25 million, inclusive 0%
More than 5.25 million but fewer than 6.00 million 0%
Between 6.00 million and 6.75 million, inclusive 0%
More than 6.75 million but fewer than 7.50 million 6%
7.50 million or more 91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 24
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 191
Number of Forecasts 114
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 488
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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