Nonrival asks:

Which candidate, excluding Donald Trump, will have the highest level of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support as of 31 July 2023, according to RealClearPolitics?

Started May 26, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The field of Republican candidates grew at the end of May 2023 with Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Tim Scott entering the race (Politico, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics, set to "3M"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 August 2023. In the event of a tie, the candidate that most recently prior to 31 July 2023 had the lower level of support will be considered to have the highest level.

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NOTE 14 June 2023: A person must still be a presidential candidate as of 31 July 2023 to count.


The question closed "Ron DeSantis" with a closing date of 1 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Ron DeSantis 89%
Nikki Haley 2%
Mike Pence 3%
Tim Scott 2%
Someone else 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 159
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 409
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.013
2.
-0.013
3.
-0.013
4.
-0.013

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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