Will the Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the Virginia state House and/or Senate in the 2023 legislative elections?

Started Jun 02, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 07, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Elections for the Virginia General Assembly, which consists of the House of Delegates (House) and Senate, are scheduled to be held on 7 November 2023 (Ballotpedia - Virginia House Elections, Ballotpedia - Virginia Senate Elections). As of the launch of this question, Republicans controlled the House and Democrats the Senate (Virginia Mercury, AP). Non-Democratic candidates would not count, irrespective of any caucus affiliation.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes, both the House and Senate" with a closing date of 7 November 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, only the House 15%
Yes, only the Senate 36%
Yes, both the House and Senate 37%
No 13%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 72
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.429
2.
-0.42
3.
-0.395
4.
-0.353
5.
-0.289

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username