rkajstura asks:

How many seats will the Law and Justice party (PiS) list win in the Sejm in Poland's next parliamentary election?

Started Jun 09, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Poland's ruling PiS, sometimes referred to by its coalition name "United Right," is seeking a third consecutive term as the majority in parliament, though observers see a very competitive race (Politico, Guardian, The First News, Politico - Poland Poll of Polls). The Sejm is the lower house of the Polish parliament, and the next parliamentary election is to be held by November 2023 (Sejm.gov.pl). All seats won as a result of votes for the PiS official candidate list will be counted towards resolution, including the members of any minor coalition parties included in the PiS list (e.g., The First News). The close date for this question will be changed once the official election date is set.

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NOTE 9 August 2023: The President of Poland has announced this year's election date as 15 October 2023, and the suspend date has been changed accordingly (Politico).


The question closed "PiS will win a plurality of seats" with a closing date of 15 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
PiS will win a majority of seats 4%
PiS will win a plurality of seats 86%
PiS will win neither a majority nor a plurality 10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 112
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.130916
2.
-0.123771
3.
-0.115291
4.
-0.111384
5.
-0.074245

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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