How many seats will the Law and Justice party (PiS) list win in the Sejm in Poland's next parliamentary election?
Closed Oct 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Poland's ruling PiS, sometimes referred to by its coalition name "United Right," is seeking a third consecutive term as the majority in parliament, though observers see a very competitive race (Politico, Guardian, The First News, Politico - Poland Poll of Polls). The Sejm is the lower house of the Polish parliament, and the next parliamentary election is to be held by November 2023 (Sejm.gov.pl). All seats won as a result of votes for the PiS official candidate list will be counted towards resolution, including the members of any minor coalition parties included in the PiS list (e.g., The First News). The close date for this question will be changed once the official election date is set.
NOTE 9 August 2023: The President of Poland has announced this year's election date as 15 October 2023, and the suspend date has been changed accordingly (Politico).
The question closed "PiS will win a plurality of seats" with a closing date of 15 October 2023.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|PiS will win a majority of seats||4%|
|PiS will win a plurality of seats||86%|
|PiS will win neither a majority nor a plurality||10%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||32|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 215|
|Number of Forecasts||112|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 605|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|