Will the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) vote to approve a new collective bargaining agreement with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) before 1 October 2023?
Closed Aug 24, 2023 12:00AM UTC
Dock workers represented by the ILWU have been working without a contract since July 2022, and work stoppages at some West Coast ports have some looking to the White House to intervene (US News & World Report, CNBC, Port Technology). The question would close upon the vote by the union members approving the new collective bargaining agreement.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 23 August 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65.40% | |
| No | 34.60% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 16 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 215 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 42 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 605 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
