Will the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) vote to approve a new collective bargaining agreement with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) before 1 October 2023?

Started Jun 09, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 24, 2023 12:00AM UTC

Dock workers represented by the ILWU have been working without a contract since July 2022, and work stoppages at some West Coast ports have some looking to the White House to intervene (US News & World Report, CNBC, Port Technology). The question would close upon the vote by the union members approving the new collective bargaining agreement.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 23 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 65.40%
No 34.60%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.024296
2.
-0.024231
3.
-0.024165
4.
-0.023235
5.
-0.022335

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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