How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the first Republican primary debate in 2023?

Started Jun 16, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 23, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The Republican National Committee has announced the first Republican presidential primary debate with new, minimum standards for participation (CBS News, Politico). The first Republican presidential primary debate is scheduled for 23 August 2023 in Milwaukee, WI, with another planned for 24 August 2023 should enough candidates qualify (GOP.com). For the purposes of this question, a split between two or more days would be considered a single debate. If the debate is rescheduled for another date in 2023, then the close date will be rescheduled accordingly. If there is no Republican primary debate in 2023, the question will be voided.

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The question closed "7 or 8" with a closing date of 23 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
4 or fewer 0%
5 or 6 4%
7 or 8 91%
9 or 10 5%
11 or 12 0%
13 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 268
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 480
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.101
3.
-0.087
5.
-0.083

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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