Will US federal criminal charges be filed against Changpeng Zhao for actions related to the operation of Binance and/or Binance.US before 30 December 2023?

Started Jun 23, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 21, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Challenges

Zhao, the founder of Binance, is already facing civil complaints from the CFTC and SEC related to the operation of the cryptocurrency exchange, though no criminal charges have yet been filed (Ars Technica, Coin Telegraph, Coin Telegraph, CFTC, SEC). Any criminal charge or indictment under seal would only count upon the unsealing of the charge or indictment during the question's open period (Cornell, see Definition (1), Legal Beagle).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 21 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 27.00%
No 73.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 22
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.9706
3.
-0.924559
4.
-0.863645
5.
-0.416236

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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